Test any strategy in two seconds
Most traders discover how a bot behaves by running it with real money for a week. The backtester answers the same question instantly — a million simulated trades against real contract odds, using your exact settings.
What you get back
A default run simulates 2,000 independent runs of 500 trades — a million trades — using your staking rule, starting stake, multiplier or unit, maximum stake and bankroll. It returns:
- Probability of ruin — how often the bankroll is gone before the run ends.
- Probability of profit — how often you finish ahead.
- Median final bankroll — the typical result, not the average that outliers flatter.
- Equity curves — sample runs plotted over time, so you can see the drawdowns coming.
- A histogram of outcomes — the whole distribution, not one number.
All six staking systems are supported: Martingale, D'Alembert, Reverse D'Alembert, Reverse Martingale, 1-3-2-6 and Oscar's Grind — so you can put two side by side and settle the argument.
We publish the actual odds
These win probabilities are exact, not estimated. Volatility indices draw each tick's last digit independently and uniformly from 0–9, so Digit Over 1 wins on 2–9 — eight outcomes in ten, every time. Payouts move a little by symbol, duration and time of day, so every figure below is editable in the tool.
| Contract | Win probability | Typical payout | Break-even payout | House edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Digit Over 1 | 80% | 1.19 | 1.25 | 4.8% |
| Digit Under 8 | 80% | 1.19 | 1.25 | 4.8% |
| Digit Over 2 | 70% | 1.36 | 1.43 | 4.8% |
| Digit Under 7 | 70% | 1.36 | 1.43 | 4.8% |
| Digit Over 3 | 60% | 1.58 | 1.67 | 5.2% |
| Digit Under 6 | 60% | 1.58 | 1.67 | 5.2% |
| Digit Differs | 90% | 1.06 | 1.11 | 4.6% |
| Digit Matches | 10% | 9.50 | 10.00 | 5.0% |
| Digit Even / Odd | 50% | 1.95 | 2.00 | 2.5% |
| Rise / Fall | 50% | 1.95 | 2.00 | 2.5% |
There's a free lesson in that table. Even/Odd and Rise/Fall cost roughly half what the digit contracts do. Which contract you pick moves your long-run result more than which staking strategy you argue about — and almost nobody tells you that.
Break-even payout is simply 1 ÷ win probability. Any quote above that line is a contract priced in your favour. The tool derives the edge from whatever payout you type rather than asserting one, so you can check live quotes yourself and see the moment anything unusual appears.
The digit verification panel
The simulation assumes digits are uniform and independent. Rather than ask you to take that on trust, the page pulls 1,000 live ticks and tests it:
- A chi-square uniformity test on the digit counts against the 95% critical value at 9 degrees of freedom — is this spread consistent with a fair ten-sided die?
- A lag-1 autocorrelation check — does each digit tell you anything about the next?
Run it on R_10, R_25, R_50, R_75 or R_100 and the verdict is consistent: uniform and independent. That is your evidence, gathered from live data in seconds, that no digit-pattern strategy can work — and the reason the digit analysis tools are built for describing markets rather than forecasting them.
How to get real value from it
- Open the Backtest tab.
- Enter the settings you genuinely intend to use — real stake, real multiplier, real bankroll. Optimistic inputs give worthless output.
- Read the probability of ruin first. Above a few percent over 500 trades and the plan won't survive regular use.
- Compare median against mean. If the mean looks healthy but the median is a loss, a handful of lucky runs are carrying the average — and you probably aren't one of them.
- Change one variable at a time. Lowering the maximum stake usually cuts ruin risk sharply for very little give-up.
Where the model stops
It simulates staking against fixed contract odds. It doesn't model latency, requotes, API disconnects, or Deriv's limits on open positions and aggregate payout — all of which make live results a little worse than simulated ones. And it can't manufacture an edge, because none of these contracts has one.
What it does do is turn "this bot seems to work" into a number you can act on. Run it against the settings of any free bot before you go live. Risk disclosure.
Build and run it yourself
Binary Pro is free to use, runs in the browser, and works on a Deriv demo account.
Open the bot builder