Rise/Fall, explained

Rise/Fall is the simplest bet on Deriv: will the price be higher or lower than your entry point when the contract ends? It looks like a coin flip. It's close to one — but not for the reason most people assume, and knowing why changes how you should trade it.

How it works

Pick a duration — a number of ticks, or a fixed time — and a direction, Rise or Fall. If the exit price finishes above your entry price, Rise wins. Below it, Fall wins. No barrier, no digit, no market analysis: just up or down by the time the clock runs out.

The real odds

Rise/Fall pays about 1.95 against a fair 50/50, for a house edge of roughly 2.5% — the same cost as Even/Odd and the cheapest contract Deriv offers. Every other digit contract runs 4.6% to 5.2%. Full odds table →

Where the edge actually is

Even/Odd has only two outcomes — a digit is always definitively one or the other. Rise/Fall has a third possibility: the price can land exactly on your entry price, with no net movement at all. When that happens, the contract loses, for whichever direction you picked. That's the entire 2.5%. It isn't a biased coin toss; it's a fair one with the house holding the outcome where the coin lands on its edge.

How often that actually happens depends on duration. A one-tick contract settles almost immediately, giving the price the least room to move — and the best chance of landing back on the exact entry value. Stretch the contract to five ticks and the price has taken five independent steps by expiry, so finishing precisely level gets much rarer. That's the whole reason Profit Pro — Rise/Fall trades over five ticks instead of one: fewer ties, not a better direction call.

Longer isn't free. Stretching duration cuts tie risk, but it also means five ticks of price movement can carry you further from your entry than one tick would — the outcome is decided by more movement, not less. There's no duration that removes the edge; there's only a duration that moves where it comes from.

Which staking strategies suit it

A clean, near-50/50 outcome makes Rise/Fall a natural fit for the same strategies that suit Even/Odd: Martingale, which needs frequent wins to make the doubling worthwhile, and 1-3-2-6, which is built around a fair coin. It's a poor match for strategies that expect an uneven win rate, like the barrier plays on Over/Under.

Run it in Binary Pro

Open the Bot Builder, choose a Quick strategy, and set the trade type to Rise/Fall.
Set your duration in ticks, your stake, and your profit and loss thresholds.
Hit Run to load the blocks onto the workspace and adjust anything before starting.
Or skip the setup and load Profit Pro — Rise/Fall directly — a capped-recovery bot built specifically for this contract.

Illustrative figures are rounded. Payouts move by market, duration and time of day — check the live quote before you commit. Risk disclosure.

Build and run it yourself

Binary Pro is free to use, runs in the browser, and works on a Deriv demo account.

Open the bot builder